Macro Regime & Evidence Chain
SAS Minerva Intelligence
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Pipeline Sync: -- | Analyst Note Updated: 2026-10-12
PRIMARY THESIS
Long-end yields are driven by real rates and term premium; asset valuations remain highly sensitive to capex cash flow realization.
MAIN TENSION
Macroeconomic and labor market resilience vs. fiscal supply pressure and credit stratification.
EVIDENCE STATE & LIVE TRIGGERS
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Research Discipline: Evidence & Falsification Framework
Research methodology: Separating confirmation triggers from core hypothesis invalidation boundaries.
✓ Supporting Evidence & Escalation
- RRP Buffer Thinning (RRPONTSYD): Confirms liquidity buffers are largely depleted.
- 10Y TIPS Real Rate (DFII10): Sustained around -- (historical high percentile), imposing hard constraints on real capital costs.
✗ Conflicting Signals & Divergence
- Repo & Credit Spread Consistency: Repo market shows no stress (SOFR below IORB), aligning with low high-yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2).
⚡ Hypothesis Invalidation Triggers
- Liquidity Transmission Failure: Hypothesis invalidated if SOFR−IORB 10D avg remains ≤ 0bp while reserves rebound continuously.